A pair of .500 teams face off in Week 9 of the NFL with the Atlanta Falcons hosting the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota will try to stay in the playoff hunt despite losing quarterback Kirk Cousins to a season-ending injury while Atlanta will try to ignite its sputtering offense by naming Taylor Heinicke its starting QB.
NFL odds opened with the Falcons as 4-point home favorites before that number ticked up to -4.5. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Vikings vs. Falcons on November 5.
Vikings vs Falcons odds
Vikings vs Falcons predictions
The Minnesota Vikings are on a three-game winning streak but Kirk Cousins was the primary reason that they beat the Packers and 49ers in the last two weeks. Cousins was fifth in the league among all qualifying quarterbacks in passing grade per PFF and while his absence is baked into this line it might not be enough given the drop-off after him on the depth chart.
Minnesota traded for Joshua Dobbs on Tuesday but with only days for him to prepare for Atlanta, the Vikes have named rookie Jaren Hall as their starter for Sunday. Hall was a fifth-round selection and while he has excellent mobility his lack of experience and arm strength are cause for concern.
It says a lot about the Vikings’ confidence in Hall that they traded for the struggling Dobbs as a stopgap and I don’t see them having any success through the air especially with All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson still sidelined. Minnesota will likely be forced to lean on its ground game but ranks just 28th in the NFL in yards per carry (3.6) while Atlanta leads the league in defensive rush EPA.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons are also undergoing a change at QB but the difference is that they should be better. Sophomore Desmond Ridder had been struggling ranking 34th in the league in passing grade according to PFF and had turned the ball over seven times in the last three weeks.
Taylor Heinicke replaced Ridder at halftime in Week 8 and almost led the Falcons to a comeback win after throwing for 175 yards and a score in the second half. He made 24 starts with Washington over the last two years and while he’s not a high-caliber passer he is a solid game manager. That might be all this Falcons offense needs since they prefer to run the ball anyway and Ridder had been killing their momentum with giveaways in the red zone.
It isn’t easy to lay this many points on an Atlanta side that hasn’t won by more a field goal since Week 1, but it’s the right side given Minnesota’s ugly situation at QB.
My best bet: Falcons -3.5 (-110 at PointsBet)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Vikings vs Falcons same-game parlay
Falcons -3.5Taylor Heinicke Over 27.5 Pass AttemptsNate Landman Over 7.5 Total Tackles
+550 at bet365
Despite often leaning on their ground game, the Falcons have been consistently airing it out with more than 30 pass attempts in six of their last seven games. They’ll likely throw the ball even more with Heinicke under center since he has a better arm than Ridder and had 21 attempts in just a single half last week (albeit with a negative game script).
Landman has been a tackling machine ever since taking over for the injured Troy Andersen in Week 4. He has picked up at least eight tackles in five straight games. With the Vikings starting a rookie QB, they’ll likely aim for shorter chunk plays, which should give him plenty of tackling opportunities.
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Vikings vs Falcons spread and Over/Under analysis
The Falcons opened as 4-point faves for this matchup and ticked up to -5 before buyback on the Vikes moved the line back down to -3.5. The lookahead number on the total was 41 but with Cousins done for the year it officially opened at 38 on Monday before shifting to 37 by Wednesday.
The Vikings have gone 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games but they’ll have a tough time maintaining that momentum without Cousins who has started 88 of 89 games for Minnesota since joining the team in 2018.
The Falcons are coming off a 28-23 loss to the Titans and have gone just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. Atlanta’s offense mustered just 89 total yards against Tennessee in the first half but was able to roll up 253 yards after halftime with Heinicke at the helm.
With a solid defense and a conservative offense, it’s tough for the Falcons to cover spreads this large and their previous three wins all came by three or fewer points.
